Computer-implemented calculation of corn harvest recommendations

ABSTRACT

A computer system and computer-implemented techniques for determining crop harvest times during a growing season based upon hybrid seed properties, weather conditions, and geo-location of planted fields is provided. In an embodiment, determining crop harvest times for corn fields may be accomplished using a server computer system that receives over a digital communication network, electronic digital data representing hybrid seed properties, including seed type and relative maturity, and weather data for the specific geo-location of the agricultural field. Weather data includes temperature, humidity, and dew point for a specified period of days. Using digitally programmed equilibrium moisture content logic within the computer system to create and store, in computer memory, an equilibrium moisture content time series for the specific geo-location that is based upon weather data. The equilibrium moisture content is used to determine the rate of grain dry down because it gives a basis for how strongly water vapor will dissipate from a kernel to open air. Using digitally programmed grain moisture logic of the computer system to calculate and store in computer memory R6 moisture content for a specific hybrid seed based on a plurality of hybrid seed data. Using digitally programmed grain dry down logic of the computer system to create and store in computer memory a grain dry down time series model for the specific hybrid seed at the specific geo-location that represents the estimated moisture content of the kernel over specified time data points. The grain dry down time series is based upon the equilibrium moisture content time series, the estimated R6 date, the estimated R6 moisture content value, and specific hybrid seed properties. Using digitally programmed harvest recommendation logic of the computer system to determine and display a harvest time recommendation for harvesting crop grown from a specific hybrid seed plant based on the grain dry down time series and the desired moisture level of the grower.

CROSS REFERENCE TO BENEFIT CLAIM

This application claims the benefit under 35 U.S.C. § 120 as a Continuation of application Ser. No. 14/925,797, filed Oct. 28, 2015, the entire contents of which is hereby incorporated by reference as if fully set forth herein. The applicant(s) hereby rescind any disclaimer of claim scope in the parent application(s) or the prosecution history thereof and advise the USPTO that the claims in this application may be broader than any claim in the parent application.

COPYRIGHT NOTICE

A portion of the disclosure of this patent document contains material which is subject to copyright protection. The copyright owner has no objection to the facsimile reproduction by anyone of the patent document or the patent disclosure, as it appears in the Patent and Trademark Office patent file or records, but otherwise reserves all copyright or rights whatsoever. © 2015 The Climate Corporation.

FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE

The present disclosure relates to computer-implemented techniques for modeling grain moisture related to determining optimal harvest time for hybrid corn seeds based upon seed type, agricultural field data, and weather data.

BACKGROUND

The approaches described in this section are approaches that could be pursued, but not necessarily approaches that have been previously conceived or pursued. Therefore, unless otherwise indicated, it should not be assumed that any of the approaches described in this section qualify as prior art merely by virtue of their inclusion in this section.

Harvested corn grain is classified into five grades, with the highest quality grade, Grade No. 1, being the most expensive. Classifying corn grain involves classifying a minimum weight per bushel and a percentage of damaged kernels per bushel. Although grain moisture is not used in determining corn grain quality grades, it is used to determine a sales price per bushel of a particular grade. Grain moisture refers to and is measured as the ratio of water mass to wet kernel mass, referred to herein as “wet-basis”. Grain moisture level is important to buyers because the level of moisture in grain can affect the amount of degradation of grain during storage and shipment. Therefore buyers generally request that grain moisture be around 15.5% or less. If a grower harvested corn that has higher than desired grain moisture, then buyers may demand a discount for the harvested corn. The cost may be significant.

For example, the economic impact of a grower who harvested 1000 lbs. of corn with grain moisture of 20% is that the price per bushel would be discounted based upon the harvest weight after drying down the harvest to the desired moisture level. In this case, drying down 1000 lbs. of harvest at a moisture level of 20% to a moisture level of 15.5% would shrink the overall harvest weight to approximately 955 lbs. This loss in total weight would equate to about a 4.5% write-down in value. Therefore the economic impact can be significant if a harvest is not at the desired grain moisture level.

As a kernel grows, the corn plant transfers water and nutrients to the kernel. During maturation the amount of kernel moisture begins to slowly decrease. When the kernel reaches physiological maturity, referred to as R6 stage, there is a passive exchange of moisture between the kernel and outside air. The R6 stage is also referred to as “black layer” because physiological maturity occurs when a black layer forms at the base of the kernels. The black layer is a hard starch layer that turns black or brown and cuts off the water and dry matter transfer to the kernel. Once the R6 stage is reached the decrease in kernel moisture is primarily due to the rate of water loss from the kernel itself to outside air. This rate is referred to as grain dry down.

Grain dry down is influenced by many factors. One such factor is the ambient air temperature and humidity. Higher humidity or cooler temperatures may slow grain dry down because there is less difference between the humidity in the kernel and the ambient air. Conversely, areas where the humidity and/or temperature are low the grain dry down may be accelerated. Therefore growers must account for current and future weather conditions when estimating the ideal harvest time based on grain dry down.

Producers of hybrid corn seeds provide relative maturity ratings to help growers predict when to harvest their grain based upon the environment and the type of hybrid seed. Relative maturity is a method to classify a corn hybrid seed based on the mega-environment where it is planted. Relative maturity is a rating system that helps determine when a hybrid may be safely harvested with minimal harvest loss due to excessive moisture or kernel damage, usually based upon the assumption that grain moisture loss equals about 0.5 percentage points per day. Therefore two days of field drying equals one day of relative maturity. For example, if hybrid A is assigned a relative maturity of 110 and hybrid B is assigned a relative maturity of 114, and if hybrid A and hybrid B are planted on the same day, then it is understood that on average hybrid B has two percentage points more moisture than hybrid A when hybrid A completes its dry down. Growers use the relative maturity data to approximate when to harvest their corn based upon relative maturity values.

Another factor in determining ideal harvest times is determining when R6 begins, as the physical black layer at the base of the kernel is not visible unless the corn is dissected. Therefore growers estimate the beginning of the R6 stage based upon approximations provided by producers and historical observed data of the different hybrid seeds. However, knowing the rate of grain dry down and the approximate start date of R6 is only helpful if growers know the initial grain moisture content at the beginning of R6. Producers and growers approximate average moisture for corn hybrids at about 30%. By using generalized grain moisture content at R6, dry down predictions are prone to error if the starting moisture content is not near the estimated 30%. Individual fluctuations between grain moisture content at R6 for specific hybrid seed varieties may lead to errors when predicting harvest times based upon a target grain moisture content at harvest.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

In the drawings:

FIG. 1 illustrates an example computer system that is configured to perform the functions described herein, shown in a field environment with other apparatus with which the system may interoperate.

FIG. 2A, FIG. 2B illustrate two views of an example logical organization of sets of instructions in main memory when an example mobile application is loaded for execution.

FIG. 3 illustrates a programmed process by which the agricultural intelligence computer system generates one or more preconfigured agronomic models using agronomic data provided by one or more data sources.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram that illustrates a computer system 400 upon which an embodiment of the invention may be implemented.

FIG. 5 depicts an example programmed algorithm or process for determining optimal harvest time for a specific corn planted at a specific geo-location based upon target grain moisture content at harvest.

FIG. 6 depicts an example programmed algorithm or process for receiving agricultural data from external sources.

FIG. 7 depicts an example programmed algorithm or process by which grain moisture logic is used to estimate grain moisture content for the specific hybrid seed at R6.

FIG. 8 depicts an example programmed algorithm or process by which grain dry down logic is used to calculate daily dry down rates starting at R6.

FIG. 9 depicts a graphical representation of a sample harvest recommendation model that may be displayed digital form on a computer display.

FIG. 10 depicts an example embodiment of a timeline view for data entry.

FIG. 11 depicts an example embodiment of a spreadsheet view for data entry.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

In the following description, for the purposes of explanation, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present disclosure. It will be apparent, however, that embodiments may be practiced without these specific details. In other instances, well-known structures and devices are shown in block diagram form in order to avoid unnecessarily obscuring the present disclosure. Embodiments are disclosed in sections according to the following outline:

1. GENERAL OVERVIEW

2. EXAMPLE AGRICULTURAL INTELLIGENCE COMPUTER SYSTEM

-   -   2.1. STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW     -   2.2. APPLICATION PROGRAM OVERVIEW     -   2.3. DATA INGEST TO THE COMPUTER SYSTEM     -   2.4. PROCESS OVERVIEW—AGRONOMIC MODEL TRAINING     -   2.5. SOIL PROPERTY ESTIMATION SUBSYSTEM     -   2.6. IMPLEMENTATION EXAMPLE—HARDWARE OVERVIEW

3. FUNCTIONAL OVERVIEW

-   -   3.1. RECEIVING DATA     -   3.2. EQUILIBRIUM MOISTURE CONTENT LOGIC     -   3.3. GRAIN MOISTURE LOGIC     -   3.4. GRAIN DRY DOWN LOGIC     -   3.5. HARVEST RECOMMENDATION LOGIC

1. General Overview

A computer system and computer-implemented techniques are provided for determining crop harvest times during a growing season based upon hybrid seed properties, weather conditions, and geo-location of planted fields. In an embodiment, determining crop harvest times for corn fields may be accomplished using a server computer system that is programmed to receive, over a digital communication network, electronic digital data representing hybrid seed properties, including seed type and relative maturity, and weather data for the specific geo-location of the agricultural field. Weather data includes temperature, humidity, and dew point for a specified period of days. Using digitally programmed equilibrium moisture content logic within the computer system, the system is programmed to create and store, in computer memory, an equilibrium moisture content time series for the specific geo-location that is based upon weather data. Equilibrium moisture content on a particular day represents the expected dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction that would be found in the kernel at the specific geo-location if an unlimited amount of time is allowed for moisture in the kernel and in air to exchange and reach equilibrium according to the weather condition of that particular day. The equilibrium moisture content is used to determine the rate of grain dry down based upon computer-implemented calculations of how strongly water vapor will dissipate from a kernel to open air for a specific day.

Using digitally programmed grain moisture logic, the computer system is programmed to calculate and store in computer memory R6 moisture content for a specific hybrid seed based on a plurality of hybrid seed data. The R6 moisture content is important for determining the estimated starting moisture of the kernels for the grain dry down time series model that is discussed next.

Using digitally programmed grain dry down logic, the computer system also is programmed to create and store in computer memory a grain dry down time series model for the specific hybrid seed at the specific geo-location that represents the estimated moisture content of the kernel over specified time data points. “Model,” in this context, refers to a set of computer executable instructions and associated data that can be invoked, called, executed, resolved or calculated to yield digitally stored output data based upon input data that is received in electronic digital form. It is convenient, at times, in this disclosure to specify a model using one or more mathematical equations, but any such model is intended to be implemented in programmed computer-executable instructions that are stored in memory with associated data. The grain dry down time series is based upon the equilibrium moisture content time series, the estimated R6 date, the estimated R6 moisture content, and specific hybrid seed properties.

Using digitally programmed harvest recommendation logic, the computer system is programmed to determine and display a harvest time recommendation for harvesting crop grown from a specific hybrid seed plant based on the grain dry down time series and the desired moisture level of the grower.

2. Example Agricultural Intelligence Computer System

2.1 Structural Overview

FIG. 1 illustrates an example computer system that is configured to perform the functions described herein, shown in a field environment with other apparatus with which the system may interoperate. In one embodiment, a user 102 owns, operates or possesses a field manager computing device 104 in a field location or associated with a field location such as a field intended for agricultural activities or a management location for one or more agricultural fields. The field manager computer device 104 is programmed or configured to provide field data 106 to an agricultural intelligence computer system 130 via one or more networks 109.

Examples of field data 106 include (a) identification data (for example, acreage, field name, field identifiers, geographic identifiers, boundary identifiers, crop identifiers, and any other suitable data that may be used to identify farm land, such as a common land unit (CLU), lot and block number, a parcel number, geographic coordinates and boundaries, Farm Serial Number (FSN), farm number, tract number, field number, section, township, and/or range), (b) harvest data (for example, crop type, crop variety, crop rotation, whether the crop is grown organically, harvest date, Actual Production History (APH), expected yield, yield, crop price, crop revenue, grain moisture, tillage practice, and previous growing season information), (c) soil data (for example, type, composition, pH, organic matter (OM), cation exchange capacity (CEC)), (d) planting data (for example, planting date, seed(s) type, relative maturity (RM) of planted seed(s), seed population), (e) fertilizer data (for example, nutrient type (Nitrogen, Phosphorous, Potassium), application type, application date, amount, source, method), (f) pesticide data (for example, pesticide, herbicide, fungicide, other substance or mixture of substances intended for use as a plant regulator, defoliant, or desiccant, application date, amount, source, method), (g) irrigation data (for example, application date, amount, source, method), (h) weather data (for example, precipitation, temperature, wind, forecast, pressure, visibility, clouds, heat index, dew point, humidity, snow depth, air quality, sunrise, sunset), (i) imagery data (for example, imagery and light spectrum information from an agricultural apparatus sensor, camera, computer, smartphone, tablet, unmanned aerial vehicle, planes or satellite), (j) scouting observations (photos, videos, free form notes, voice recordings, voice transcriptions, weather conditions (temperature, precipitation (current and over time), soil moisture, crop growth stage, wind velocity, relative humidity, dew point, black layer)), and (k) soil, seed, crop phenology, pest and disease reporting, and predictions sources and databases.

An data server computer 108 is communicatively coupled to agricultural intelligence computer system 130 and is programmed or configured to send external data 110 to agricultural intelligence computer system 130 via the network(s) 109. The external data server computer 108 may be owned or operated by the same legal person or entity as the agricultural intelligence computer system 130, or by a different person or entity such as a government agency, non-governmental organization (NGO), and/or a private data service provider. Examples of external data include weather data, imagery data, soil data, or statistical data relating to crop yields, among others. External data 110 may consist of the same type of information as field data 106. In some embodiments, the external data 110 is provided by an external data server 108 owned by the same entity that owns and/or operates the agricultural intelligence computer system 130. For example, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 may include a data server focused exclusively on a type of that might otherwise be obtained from third party sources, such as weather data. In some embodiments, an external data server 108 may actually be incorporated within the system 130.

An agricultural apparatus 111 has one or more remote sensors 112 fixed thereon, which sensors are communicatively coupled either directly or indirectly via agricultural apparatus 111 to the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 and are programmed or configured to send sensor data to agricultural intelligence computer system 130. Examples of agricultural apparatus 111 include tractors, combines, harvesters, planters, trucks, fertilizer equipment, unmanned aerial vehicles, and any other item of physical machinery or hardware, typically mobile machinery, and which may be used in tasks associated with agriculture. In some embodiments, a single unit of apparatus 111 may comprise a plurality of sensors 112 that are coupled locally in a network on the apparatus; controller area network (CAN) is example of such a network that can be installed in combines or harvesters. Application controller 114 is communicatively coupled to agricultural intelligence computer system 130 via the network(s) 109 and is programmed or configured to receive one or more scripts to control an operating parameter of an agricultural vehicle or implement from the agricultural intelligence computer system 130. For instance, a controller area network (CAN) bus interface may be used to enable communications from the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 to the agricultural apparatus 111, such as how the CLIMATE FIELDVIEW DRIVE, available from The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, Calif., is used. Sensor data may consist of the same type of information as field data 106.

The apparatus 111 may comprise a cab computer 115 that is programmed with a cab application, which may comprise a version or variant of the mobile application for device 104 that is further described in other sections herein. In an embodiment, cab computer 115 comprises a compact computer, often a tablet-sized computer or smartphone, with a color graphical screen display that is mounted within an operator's cab of the apparatus 111. Cab computer 115 may implement some or all of the operations and functions that are described further herein for the mobile computer device 104.

The network(s) 109 broadly represent any combination of one or more data communication networks including local area networks, wide area networks, internetworks or internets, using any of wireline or wireless links, including terrestrial or satellite links. The network(s) may be implemented by any medium or mechanism that provides for the exchange of data between the various elements of FIG. 1. The various elements of FIG. 1 may also have direct (wired or wireless) communications links. The sensors 112, controller 114, external data server computer 108, and other elements of the system each comprise an interface compatible with the network(s) 109 and are programmed or configured to use standardized protocols for communication across the networks such as TCP/IP, Bluetooth, CAN protocol and higher-layer protocols such as HTTP, TLS, and the like.

Agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is programmed or configured to receive field data 106 from field manager computing device 104, external data 110 from external data server computer 108, and sensor data from remote sensor 112. Agricultural intelligence computer system 130 may be further configured to host, use or execute one or more computer programs, other software elements, digitally programmed logic such as FPGAs or ASICs, or any combination thereof to perform translation and storage of data values, construction of digital models of one or more crops on one or more fields, generation of recommendations and notifications, and generation and sending of scripts to application controller 114, in the manner described further in other sections of this disclosure.

In an embodiment, agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is programmed with or comprises a communication layer 132, presentation layer 134, data management layer 140, hardware/virtualization layer 150, and model and field data repository 160. “Layer,” in this context, refers to any combination of electronic digital interface circuits, microcontrollers, firmware such as drivers, and/or computer programs or other software elements.

Communication layer 132 may be programmed or configured to perform input/output interfacing functions including sending requests to field manager computing device 104, external data server computer 108, and remote sensor 112 for field data, external data, and sensor data respectively. Communication layer 132 may be programmed or configured to send the received data to model and field data repository 160 to be stored as field data 106.

Presentation layer 134 may be programmed or configured to generate a graphical user interface (GUI) to be displayed on field manager computing device 104, cab computer 115 or other computers that are coupled to the system 130 through the network 109. The GUI may comprise controls for inputting data to be sent to agricultural intelligence computer system 130, generating requests for models and/or recommendations, and/or displaying recommendations, notifications, models, and other field data.

Data management layer 140 may be programmed or configured to manage read operations and write operations involving the repository 160 and other functional elements of the system, including queries and result sets communicated between the functional elements of the system and the repository. Examples of data management layer 140 include JDBC, SQL server interface code, and/or HADOOP interface code, among others. Repository 160 may comprise a database. As used herein, the term “database” may refer to either a body of data, a relational database management system (RDBMS), or to both. As used herein, a database may comprise any collection of data including hierarchical databases, relational databases, flat file databases, object-relational databases, object oriented databases, and any other structured collection of records or data that is stored in a computer system. Examples of RDBMS's include, but are not limited to including, ORACLE®, MYSQL, IBM® DB2, MICROSOFT® SQL SERVER, SYBASE®, and POSTGRESQL databases. However, any database may be used that enables the systems and methods described herein.

When field data 106 is not provided directly to the agricultural intelligence computer system via one or more agricultural machines or agricultural machine devices that interacts with the agricultural intelligence computer system, the user may be prompted via one or more user interfaces on the user device (served by the agricultural intelligence computer system) to input such information. In an example embodiment, the user may specify identification data by accessing a map on the user device (served by the agricultural intelligence computer system) and selecting specific CLUs that have been graphically shown on the map. In an alternative embodiment, the user 102 may specify identification data by accessing a map on the user device (served by the agricultural intelligence computer system 130) and drawing boundaries of the field over the map. Such CLU selection or map drawings represent geographic identifiers. In alternative embodiments, the user may specify identification data by accessing field identification data (provided as shape files or in a similar format) from the U. S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency or other source via the user device and providing such field identification data to the agricultural intelligence computer system.

In an example embodiment, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is programmed to generate and cause displaying a graphical user interface comprising a data manager for data input. After one or more fields have been identified using the methods described above, the data manager may provide one or more graphical user interface widgets which when selected can identify changes to the field, soil, crops, tillage, or nutrient practices. The data manager may include a timeline view, a spreadsheet view, and/or one or more editable programs.

FIG. 10 depicts an example embodiment of a timeline view for data entry. Using the display depicted in FIG. 10, a user computer can input a selection of a particular field and a particular date for the addition of event. Events depicted at the top of the timeline include Nitrogen, Planting, Practices, and Soil. To add a nitrogen application event, a user computer may provide input to select the nitrogen tab. The user computer may then select a location on the timeline for a particular field in order to indicate an application of nitrogen on the selected field. In response to receiving a selection of a location on the timeline for a particular field, the data manager may display a data entry overlay, allowing the user computer to input data pertaining to nitrogen applications, planting procedures, soil application, tillage procedures, irrigation practices, or other information relating to the particular field. For example, if a user computer selects a portion of the timeline and indicates an application of nitrogen, then the data entry overlay may include fields for inputting an amount of nitrogen applied, a date of application, a type of fertilizer used, and any other information related to the application of nitrogen.

In an embodiment, the data manager provides an interface for creating one or more programs. “Program,” in this context, refers to a set of data pertaining to nitrogen applications, planting procedures, soil application, tillage procedures, irrigation practices, or other information that may be related to one or more fields, and that can be stored in digital data storage for reuse as a set in other operations. After a program has been created, it may be conceptually applied to one or more fields and references to the program may be stored in digital storage in association with data identifying the fields. Thus, instead of manually entering identical data relating to the same nitrogen applications for multiple different fields, a user computer may create a program that indicates a particular application of nitrogen and then apply the program to multiple different fields. For example, in the timeline view of FIG. 10, the top two timelines have the “Fall applied” program selected, which includes an application of 150 lbs N/ac in early April. The data manager may provide an interface for editing a program. In an embodiment, when a particular program is edited, each field that has selected the particular program is edited. For example, in FIG. 10, if the “Fall applied” program is edited to reduce the application of nitrogen to 130 lbs N/ac, the top two fields may be updated with a reduced application of nitrogen based on the edited program.

In an embodiment, in response to receiving edits to a field that has a program selected, the data manager removes the correspondence of the field to the selected program. For example, if a nitrogen application is added to the top field in FIG. 10, the interface may update to indicate that the “Fall applied” program is no longer being applied to the top field. While the nitrogen application in early April may remain, updates to the “Fall applied” program would not alter the April application of nitrogen.

FIG. 11 depicts an example embodiment of a spreadsheet view for data entry. Using the display depicted in FIG. 11, a user can create and edit information for one or more fields. The data manager may include spreadsheets for inputting information with respect to Nitrogen, Planting, Practices, and Soil as depicted in FIG. 11. To edit a particular entry, a user computer may select the particular entry in the spreadsheet and update the values. For example, FIG. 11 depicts an in-progress update to a target yield value for the second field. Additionally, a user computer may select one or more fields in order to apply one or more programs. In response to receiving a selection of a program for a particular field, the data manager may automatically complete the entries for the particular field based on the selected program. As with the timeline view, the data manager may update the entries for each field associated with a particular program in response to receiving an update to the program. Additionally, the data manager may remove the correspondence of the selected program to the field in response to receiving an edit to one of the entries for the field.

In an embodiment, model and field data is stored in model and field data repository 160. Model data comprises data models created for one or more fields. For example, a crop model may include a digitally constructed model of the development of a crop on the one or more fields. “Model,” in this context, refers to an electronic digitally stored set of executable instructions and data values, associated with one another, which are capable of receiving and responding to a programmatic or other digital call, invocation, or request for resolution based upon specified input values, to yield one or more stored output values that can serve as the basis of computer-implemented recommendations, output data displays, or machine control, among other things. Persons of skill in the field find it convenient to express models using mathematical equations, but that form of expression does not confine the models disclosed herein to abstract concepts; instead, each model herein has a practical application in a computer in the form of stored executable instructions and data that implement the model using the computer. The model data may include a model of past events on the one or more fields, a model of the current status of the one or more fields, and/or a model of predicted events on the one or more fields. Model and field data may be stored in data structures in memory, rows in a database table, in flat files or spreadsheets, or other forms of stored digital data.

Hardware/virtualization layer 150 comprises one or more central processing units (CPUs), memory controllers, and other devices, components, or elements of a computer system such as volatile or non-volatile memory, non-volatile storage such as disk, and I/O devices or interfaces as illustrated and described, for example, in connection with FIG. 4. The layer 150 also may comprise programmed instructions that are configured to support virtualization, containerization, or other technologies.

For purposes of illustrating a clear example, FIG. 1 shows a limited number of instances of certain functional elements. However, in other embodiments, there may be any number of such elements. For example, embodiments may use thousands or millions of different mobile computing devices 104 associated with different users. Further, the system 130 and/or external data server computer 108 may be implemented using two or more processors, cores, clusters, or instances of physical machines or virtual machines, configured in a discrete location or co-located with other elements in a datacenter, shared computing facility or cloud computing facility.

2.2. Application Program Overview

In an embodiment, the implementation of the functions described herein using one or more computer programs or other software elements that are loaded into and executed using one or more general-purpose computers will cause the general-purpose computers to be configured as a particular machine or as a computer that is specially adapted to perform the functions described herein. Further, each of the flow diagrams that are described further herein may serve, alone or in combination with the descriptions of processes and functions in prose herein, as algorithms, plans or directions that may be used to program a computer or logic to implement the functions that are described. In other words, all the prose text herein, and all the drawing figures, together are intended to provide disclosure of algorithms, plans or directions that are sufficient to permit a skilled person to program a computer to perform the functions that are described herein, in combination with the skill and knowledge of such a person given the level of skill that is appropriate for inventions and disclosures of this type.

In an embodiment, user 102 interacts with agricultural intelligence computer system 130 using field manager computing device 104 configured with an operating system and one or more application programs or apps; the field manager computing device 104 also may interoperate with the agricultural intelligence computer system independently and automatically under program control or logical control and direct user interaction is not always required. Field manager computing device 104 broadly represents one or more of a smart phone, PDA, tablet computing device, laptop computer, desktop computer, workstation, or any other computing device capable of transmitting and receiving information and performing the functions described herein. Field manager computing device 104 may communicate via a network using a mobile application stored on field manager computing device 104, and in some embodiments, the device may be coupled using a cable 113 or connector to the sensor 112 and/or controller 114. A particular user 102 may own, operate or possess and use, in connection with system 130, more than one field manager computing device 104 at a time.

The mobile application may provide client-side functionality, via the network to one or more mobile computing devices. In an example embodiment, field manager computing device 104 may access the mobile application via a web browser or a local client application or app. Field manager computing device 104 may transmit data to, and receive data from, one or more front-end servers, using web-based protocols or formats such as HTTP, XML and/or JSON, or app-specific protocols. In an example embodiment, the data may take the form of requests and user information input, such as field data, into the mobile computing device. In some embodiments, the mobile application interacts with location tracking hardware and software on field manager computing device 104 which determines the location of field manager computing device 104 using standard tracking techniques such as multilateration of radio signals, the global positioning system (GPS), WiFi positioning systems, or other methods of mobile positioning. In some cases, location data or other data associated with the device 104, user 102, and/or user account(s) may be obtained by queries to an operating system of the device or by requesting an app on the device to obtain data from the operating system.

In an embodiment, field manager computing device 104 sends field data 106 to agricultural intelligence computer system 130 comprising or including, but not limited to, data values representing one or more of: a geographical location of the one or more fields, tillage information for the one or more fields, crops planted in the one or more fields, and soil data extracted from the one or more fields. Field manager computing device 104 may send field data 106 in response to user input from user 102 specifying the data values for the one or more fields. Additionally, field manager computing device 104 may automatically send field data 106 when one or more of the data values becomes available to field manager computing device 104. For example, field manager computing device 104 may be communicatively coupled to remote sensor 112 and/or application controller 114. In response to receiving data indicating that application controller 114 released water onto the one or more fields, field manager computing device 104 may send field data 106 to agricultural intelligence computer system 130 indicating that water was released on the one or more fields. Field data 106 identified in this disclosure may be input and communicated using electronic digital data that is communicated between computing devices using parameterized URLs over HTTP, or another suitable communication or messaging protocol.

A commercial example of the mobile application is CLIMATE FIELDVIEW, commercially available from The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, Calif. The CLIMATE FIELDVIEW application, or other applications, may be modified, extended, or adapted to include features, functions, and programming that have not been disclosed earlier than the filing date of this disclosure. In one embodiment, the mobile application comprises an integrated software platform that allows a grower to make fact-based decisions for their operation because it combines historical data about the grower's fields with any other data that the grower wishes to compare. The combinations and comparisons may be performed in real time and are based upon scientific models that provide potential scenarios to permit the grower to make better, more informed decisions.

FIG. 2A, FIG. 2B illustrate two views of an example logical organization of sets of instructions in main memory when an example mobile application is loaded for execution. In FIG. 2A, FIG. 2B, each named element represents a region of one or more pages of RAM or other main memory, or one or more blocks of disk storage or other non-volatile storage, and the programmed instructions within those regions. In one embodiment, in FIG. 2A, a mobile computer application 200 comprises account-fields-data ingestion-sharing instructions 202, overview and alert instructions 204, digital map book instructions 206, seeds and planting instructions 208, nitrogen instructions 210, weather instructions 212, field health instructions 214, and performance instructions 216.

In one embodiment, a mobile computer application 200 comprises account-fields-data ingestion-sharing instructions 202 which are programmed to receive, translate, and ingest field data from third party systems via manual upload or APIs. Data types may include field boundaries, yield maps, as-planted maps, soil test results, as-applied maps, and/or management zones, among others. Data formats may include shape files, native data formats of third parties, and/or farm management information system (FMIS) exports, among others. Receiving data may occur via manual upload, e-mail with attachment, external APIs that push data to the mobile application, or instructions that call APIs of external systems to pull data into the mobile application. In one embodiment, mobile computer application 200 comprises a data inbox. In response to receiving a selection of the data inbox, the mobile computer application 200 may display a graphical user interface for manually uploading data files and importing uploaded files to a data manager.

In one embodiment, digital map book instructions 206 comprise field map data layers stored in device memory and are programmed with data visualization tools and geospatial field notes. This provides growers with convenient information close at hand for reference, logging and visual insights into field performance. In one embodiment, overview and alert instructions 204 are programmed to provide an operation-wide view of what is important to the grower, and timely recommendations to take action or focus on particular issues. This permits the grower to focus time on what needs attention, to save time and preserve yield throughout the season. In one embodiment, seeds and planting instructions 208 are programmed to provide tools for seed selection, hybrid placement, and script creation, including variable rate (VR) script creation, based upon scientific models and empirical data. This enables growers to maximize yield or return on investment through optimized seed purchase, placement and population.

In one embodiment, script generation instructions 205 are programmed to provide an interface for generating scripts, including variable rate (VR) fertility scripts. The interface enables growers to create scripts for field implements, such as nutrient applications, planting, and irrigation. For example, a planting script interface may comprise tools for identifying a type of seed for planting. Upon receiving a selection of the seed type, mobile computer application 200 may display one or more fields broken into soil zones along with a panel identifying each soil zone and a soil name, texture, and drainage for each zone. Mobile computer application 200 may also display tools for editing or creating such, such as graphical tools for drawing soil zones over a map of one or more fields. Planting procedures may be applied to all soil zones or different planting procedures may be applied to different subsets of soil zones. When a script is created, mobile computer application 200 may make the script available for download in a format readable by an application controller, such as an archived or compressed format. Additionally and/or alternatively, a script may be sent directly to cab computer 115 from mobile computer application 200 and/or uploaded to one or more data servers and stored for further use. In one embodiment, nitrogen instructions 210 are programmed to provide tools to inform nitrogen decisions by visualizing the availability of nitrogen to crops. This enables growers to maximize yield or return on investment through optimized nitrogen application during the season. Example programmed functions include displaying images such as SSURGO images to enable drawing of application zones and/or images generated from subfield soil data, such as data obtained from sensors, at a high spatial resolution (as fine as 10 meters or smaller because of their proximity to the soil); upload of existing grower-defined zones; providing an application graph and/or a map to enable tuning application(s) of nitrogen across multiple zones; output of scripts to drive machinery; tools for mass data entry and adjustment; and/or maps for data visualization, among others. “Mass data entry,” in this context, may mean entering data once and then applying the same data to multiple fields that have been defined in the system; example data may include nitrogen application data that is the same for many fields of the same grower, but such mass data entry applies to the entry of any type of field data into the mobile computer application 200. For example, nitrogen instructions 210 may be programmed to accept definitions of nitrogen planting and practices programs and to accept user input specifying to apply those programs across multiple fields. “Nitrogen planting programs,” in this context, refers to a stored, named set of data that associates: a name, color code or other identifier, one or more dates of application, types of material or product for each of the dates and amounts, method of application or incorporation such as injected or knifed in, and/or amounts or rates of application for each of the dates, crop or hybrid that is the subject of the application, among others. “Nitrogen practices programs,” in this context, refers to a stored, named set of data that associates: a practices name; a previous crop; a tillage system; a date of primarily tillage; one or more previous tillage systems that were used; one or more indicators of application type, such as manure, that were used. Nitrogen instructions 210 also may be programmed to generate and cause displaying a nitrogen graph, which indicates projections of plant use of the specified nitrogen and whether a surplus or shortfall is predicted; in some embodiments, different color indicators may signal a magnitude of surplus or magnitude of shortfall. In one embodiment, a nitrogen graph comprises a graphical display in a computer display device comprising a plurality of rows, each row associated with and identifying a field; data specifying what crop is planted in the field, the field size, the field location, and a graphic representation of the field perimeter; in each row, a timeline by month with graphic indicators specifying each nitrogen application and amount at points correlated to month names; and numeric and/or colored indicators of surplus or shortfall, in which color indicates magnitude.

In one embodiment, the nitrogen graph may include one or more user input features, such as dials or slider bars, to dynamically change the nitrogen planting and practices programs so that a user may optimize his nitrogen graph. The user may then use his optimized nitrogen graph and the related nitrogen planting and practices programs to implement one or more scripts, including variable rate (VR) fertility scripts. Nitrogen instructions 210 also may be programmed to generate and cause displaying a nitrogen map, which indicates projections of plant use of the specified nitrogen and whether a surplus or shortfall is predicted; in some embodiments, different color indicators may signal a magnitude of surplus or magnitude of shortfall. The nitrogen map may display projections of plant use of the specified nitrogen and whether a surplus or shortfall is predicted for different times in the past and the future (such as daily, weekly, monthly or yearly) using numeric and/or colored indicators of surplus or shortfall, in which color indicates magnitude. In one embodiment, the nitrogen map may include one or more user input features, such as dials or slider bars, to dynamically change the nitrogen planting and practices programs so that a user may optimize his nitrogen map, such as to obtain a preferred amount of surplus to shortfall. The user may then use his optimized nitrogen map and the related nitrogen planting and practices programs to implement one or more scripts, including variable rate (VR) fertility scripts. In other embodiments, similar instructions to the nitrogen instructions 210 could be used for application of other nutrients (such as phosphorus and potassium) application of pesticide, and irrigation programs.

In one embodiment, weather instructions 212 are programmed to provide field-specific recent weather data and forecasted weather information. This enables growers to save time and have an efficient integrated display with respect to daily operational decisions.

In one embodiment, field health instructions 214 are programmed to provide timely remote sensing images highlighting in-season crop variation and potential concerns. Example programmed functions include cloud checking, to identify possible clouds or cloud shadows; determining nitrogen indices based on field images; graphical visualization of scouting layers, including, for example, those related to field health, and viewing and/or sharing of scouting notes; and/or downloading satellite images from multiple sources and prioritizing the images for the grower, among others.

In one embodiment, performance instructions 216 are programmed to provide reports, analysis, and insight tools using on-farm data for evaluation, insights and decisions. This enables the grower to seek improved outcomes for the next year through fact-based conclusions about why return on investment was at prior levels, and insight into yield-limiting factors. The performance instructions 216 may be programmed to communicate via the network(s) 109 to back-end analytics programs executed at agricultural intelligence computer system 130 and/or external data server computer 108 and configured to analyze metrics such as yield, hybrid, population, SSURGO, soil tests, or elevation, among others. Programmed reports and analysis may include yield variability analysis, benchmarking of yield and other metrics against other growers based on anonymized data collected from many growers, or data for seeds and planting, among others.

Applications having instructions configured in this way may be implemented for different computing device platforms while retaining the same general user interface appearance. For example, the mobile application may be programmed for execution on tablets, smartphones, or server computers that are accessed using browsers at client computers. Further, the mobile application as configured for tablet computers or smartphones may provide a full app experience or a cab app experience that is suitable for the display and processing capabilities of cab computer 115. For example, referring now to FIG. 2B, in one embodiment a cab computer application 220 may comprise maps-cab instructions 222, remote view instructions 224, data collect and transfer instructions 226, machine alerts instructions 228, script transfer instructions 230, and scouting-cab instructions 232. The code base for the instructions of FIG. 2B may be the same as for FIG. 2A and executables implementing the code may be programmed to detect the type of platform on which they are executing and to expose, through a graphical user interface, only those functions that are appropriate to a cab platform or full platform. This approach enables the system to recognize the distinctly different user experience that is appropriate for an in-cab environment and the different technology environment of the cab. The maps-cab instructions 222 may be programmed to provide map views of fields, farms or regions that are useful in directing machine operation. The remote view instructions 224 may be programmed to turn on, manage, and provide views of machine activity in real-time or near real-time to other computing devices connected to the system 130 via wireless networks, wired connectors or adapters, and the like. The data collect and transfer instructions 226 may be programmed to turn on, manage, and provide transfer of data collected at machine sensors and controllers to the system 130 via wireless networks, wired connectors or adapters, and the like. The machine alerts instructions 228 may be programmed to detect issues with operations of the machine or tools that are associated with the cab and generate operator alerts. The script transfer instructions 230 may be configured to transfer in scripts of instructions that are configured to direct machine operations or the collection of data. The scouting-cab instructions 230 may be programmed to display location-based alerts and information received from the system 130 based on the location of the agricultural apparatus 111 or sensors 112 in the field and ingest, manage, and provide transfer of location-based scouting observations to the system 130 based on the location of the agricultural apparatus 111 or sensors 112 in the field.

2.3. Data Ingest to the Computer System

In an embodiment, external data server computer 108 stores external data 110, including soil data representing soil composition for the one or more fields and weather data representing temperature and precipitation on the one or more fields. The weather data may include past and present weather data as well as forecasts for future weather data. In an embodiment, external data server computer 108 comprises a plurality of servers hosted by different entities. For example, a first server may contain soil composition data while a second server may include weather data. Additionally, soil composition data may be stored in multiple servers. For example, one server may store data representing percentage of sand, silt, and clay in the soil while a second server may store data representing percentage of organic matter (OM) in the soil.

In an embodiment, remote sensor 112 comprises one or more sensors that are programmed or configured to produce one or more observations. Remote sensor 112 may be aerial sensors, such as satellites, vehicle sensors, planting equipment sensors, tillage sensors, fertilizer or insecticide application sensors, harvester sensors, and any other implement capable of receiving data from the one or more fields. In an embodiment, application controller 114 is programmed or configured to receive instructions from agricultural intelligence computer system 130. Application controller 114 may also be programmed or configured to control an operating parameter of an agricultural vehicle or implement. For example, an application controller may be programmed or configured to control an operating parameter of a vehicle, such as a tractor, planting equipment, tillage equipment, fertilizer or insecticide equipment, harvester equipment, or other farm implements such as a water valve. Other embodiments may use any combination of sensors and controllers, of which the following are merely selected examples.

The system 130 may obtain or ingest data under user 102 control, on a mass basis from a large number of growers who have contributed data to a shared database system. This form of obtaining data may be termed “manual data ingest” as one or more user-controlled computer operations are requested or triggered to obtain data for use by the system 130. As an example, the CLIMATE FIELDVIEW application, commercially available from The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, Calif., may be operated to export data to system 130 for storing in the repository 160.

For example, seed monitor systems can both control planter apparatus components and obtain planting data, including signals from seed sensors via a signal harness that comprises a CAN backbone and point-to-point connections for registration and/or diagnostics. Seed monitor systems can be programmed or configured to display seed spacing, population and other information to the user via the cab computer 115 or other devices within the system 130. Examples are disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 8,738,243 and US Pat. Pub. 20150094916, and the present disclosure assumes knowledge of those other patent disclosures.

Likewise, yield monitor systems may contain yield sensors for harvester apparatus that send yield measurement data to the cab computer 115 or other devices within the system 130. Yield monitor systems may utilize one or more remote sensors 112 to obtain grain moisture measurements in a combine or other harvester and transmit these measurements to the user via the cab computer 115 or other devices within the system 130.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with any moving vehicle or apparatus of the type described elsewhere herein include kinematic sensors and position sensors. Kinematic sensors may comprise any of speed sensors such as radar or wheel speed sensors, accelerometers, or gyros. Position sensors may comprise GPS receivers or transceivers, or WiFi-based position or mapping apps that are programmed to determine location based upon nearby WiFi hotspots, among others.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with tractors or other moving vehicles include engine speed sensors, fuel consumption sensors, area counters or distance counters that interact with GPS or radar signals, PTO (power take-off) speed sensors, tractor hydraulics sensors configured to detect hydraulics parameters such as pressure or flow, and/or and hydraulic pump speed, wheel speed sensors or wheel slippage sensors. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with tractors include hydraulic directional controllers, pressure controllers, and/or flow controllers; hydraulic pump speed controllers; speed controllers or governors; hitch position controllers; or wheel position controllers provide automatic steering.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with seed planting equipment such as planters, drills, or air seeders include seed sensors, which may be optical, electromagnetic, or impact sensors; downforce sensors such as load pins, load cells, pressure sensors; soil property sensors such as reflectivity sensors, moisture sensors, electrical conductivity sensors, optical residue sensors, or temperature sensors; component operating criteria sensors such as planting depth sensors, downforce cylinder pressure sensors, seed disc speed sensors, seed drive motor encoders, seed conveyor system speed sensors, or vacuum level sensors; or pesticide application sensors such as optical or other electromagnetic sensors, or impact sensors. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with such seed planting equipment include: toolbar fold controllers, such as controllers for valves associated with hydraulic cylinders; downforce controllers, such as controllers for valves associated with pneumatic cylinders, airbags, or hydraulic cylinders, and programmed for applying downforce to individual row units or an entire planter frame; planting depth controllers, such as linear actuators; metering controllers, such as electric seed meter drive motors, hydraulic seed meter drive motors, or swath control clutches; hybrid selection controllers, such as seed meter drive motors, or other actuators programmed for selectively allowing or preventing seed or an air-seed mixture from delivering seed to or from seed meters or central bulk hoppers; metering controllers, such as electric seed meter drive motors, or hydraulic seed meter drive motors; seed conveyor system controllers, such as controllers for a belt seed delivery conveyor motor; marker controllers, such as a controller for a pneumatic or hydraulic actuator; or pesticide application rate controllers, such as metering drive controllers, orifice size or position controllers.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with tillage equipment include position sensors for tools such as shanks or discs; tool position sensors for such tools that are configured to detect depth, gang angle, or lateral spacing; downforce sensors; or draft force sensors. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with tillage equipment include downforce controllers or tool position controllers, such as controllers configured to control tool depth, gang angle, or lateral spacing.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used in relation to apparatus for applying fertilizer, insecticide, fungicide and the like, such as on-planter starter fertilizer systems, subsoil fertilizer applicators, or fertilizer sprayers, include: fluid system criteria sensors, such as flow sensors or pressure sensors; sensors indicating which spray head valves or fluid line valves are open; sensors associated with tanks, such as fill level sensors; sectional or system-wide supply line sensors, or row-specific supply line sensors; or kinematic sensors such as accelerometers disposed on sprayer booms. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with such apparatus include pump speed controllers; valve controllers that are programmed to control pressure, flow, direction, PWM and the like; or position actuators, such as for boom height, subsoiler depth, or boom position.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with harvesters include yield monitors, such as impact plate strain gauges or position sensors, capacitive flow sensors, load sensors, weight sensors, or torque sensors associated with elevators or augers, or optical or other electromagnetic grain height sensors; grain moisture sensors, such as capacitive sensors; grain loss sensors, including impact, optical, or capacitive sensors; header operating criteria sensors such as header height, header type, deck plate gap, feeder speed, and reel speed sensors; separator operating criteria sensors, such as concave clearance, rotor speed, shoe clearance, or chaffer clearance sensors; auger sensors for position, operation, or speed; or engine speed sensors. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with harvesters include header operating criteria controllers for elements such as header height, header type, deck plate gap, feeder speed, or reel speed; separator operating criteria controllers for features such as concave clearance, rotor speed, shoe clearance, or chaffer clearance; or controllers for auger position, operation, or speed.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 that may be used with grain carts include weight sensors, or sensors for auger position, operation, or speed. In an embodiment, examples of controllers 114 that may be used with grain carts include controllers for auger position, operation, or speed.

In an embodiment, examples of sensors 112 and controllers 114 may be installed in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) apparatus or “drones.” Such sensors may include cameras with detectors effective for any range of the electromagnetic spectrum including visible light, infrared, ultraviolet, near-infrared (NIR), and the like; accelerometers; altimeters; temperature sensors; humidity sensors; pitot tube sensors or other airspeed or wind velocity sensors; battery life sensors; or radar emitters and reflected radar energy detection apparatus. Such controllers may include guidance or motor control apparatus, control surface controllers, camera controllers, or controllers programmed to turn on, operate, obtain data from, manage and configure any of the foregoing sensors. Examples are disclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 14/831,165 and the present disclosure assumes knowledge of that other patent disclosure.

In an embodiment, sensors 112 and controllers 114 may be affixed to soil sampling and measurement apparatus that is configured or programmed to sample soil and perform soil chemistry tests, soil moisture tests, and other tests pertaining to soil. For example, the apparatus disclosed in U.S. Pat. Nos. 8,767,194 and 8,712,148 may be used, and the present disclosure assumes knowledge of those patent disclosures.

2.4 Process Overview-Agronomic Model Training

In an embodiment, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is programmed or configured to create an agronomic model. In this context, an agronomic model is a data structure in memory of the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 that comprises field data 106, such as identification data and harvest data for one or more fields. The agronomic model may also comprise calculated agronomic properties which describe either conditions which may affect the growth of one or more crops on a field, or properties of the one or more crops, or both. Additionally, an agronomic model may comprise recommendations based on agronomic factors such as crop recommendations, irrigation recommendations, planting recommendations, and harvesting recommendations. The agronomic factors may also be used to estimate one or more crop related results, such as agronomic yield. The agronomic yield of a crop is an estimate of quantity of the crop that is produced, or in some examples the revenue or profit obtained from the produced crop.

In an embodiment, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 may use a preconfigured agronomic model to calculate agronomic properties related to currently received location and crop information for one or more fields. The preconfigured agronomic model is based upon previously processed field data, including but not limited to, identification data, harvest data, fertilizer data, and weather data. The preconfigured agronomic model may have been cross validated to ensure accuracy of the model. Cross validation may include comparison to ground truthing that compares predicted results with actual results on a field, such as a comparison of precipitation estimate with a rain gauge at the same location or an estimate of nitrogen content with a soil sample measurement.

FIG. 3 illustrates a programmed process by which the agricultural intelligence computer system generates one or more preconfigured agronomic models using field data provided by one or more data sources. FIG. 3 may serve as an algorithm or instructions for programming the functional elements of the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 to perform the operations that are now described.

At block 305, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is configured or programmed to implement agronomic data preprocessing of field data received from one or more data sources. The field data received from one or more data sources may be preprocessed for the purpose of removing noise and distorting effects within the agronomic data including measured outliers that would bias received field data values. Embodiments of agronomic data preprocessing may include, but are not limited to, removing data values commonly associated with outlier data values, specific measured data points that are known to unnecessarily skew other data values, data smoothing techniques used to remove or reduce additive or multiplicative effects from noise, and other filtering or data derivation techniques used to provide clear distinctions between positive and negative data inputs.

At block 310, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is configured or programmed to perform data subset selection using the preprocessed field data in order to identify datasets useful for initial agronomic model generation. The agricultural intelligence computer system 130 may implement data subset selection techniques including, but not limited to, a genetic algorithm method, an all subset models method, a sequential search method, a stepwise regression method, a particle swarm optimization method, and an ant colony optimization method. For example, a genetic algorithm selection technique uses an adaptive heuristic search algorithm, based on evolutionary principles of natural selection and genetics, to determine and evaluate datasets within the preprocessed agronomic data.

At block 315, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is configured or programmed to implement field dataset evaluation. In an embodiment, a specific field dataset is evaluated by creating an agronomic model and using specific quality thresholds for the created agronomic model. Agronomic models may be compared using cross validation techniques including, but not limited to, root mean square error of leave-one-out cross validation (RMSECV), mean absolute error, and mean percentage error. For example, RMSECV can cross validate agronomic models by comparing predicted agronomic property values created by the agronomic model against historical agronomic property values collected and analyzed. In an embodiment, the agronomic dataset evaluation logic is used as a feedback loop where agronomic datasets that do not meet configured quality thresholds are used during future data subset selection steps (block 310).

At block 320, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is configured or programmed to implement agronomic model creation based upon the cross validated agronomic datasets. In an embodiment, agronomic model creation may implement multivariate regression techniques to create preconfigured agronomic data models.

At block 325, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 is configured or programmed to store the preconfigured agronomic data models for future field data evaluation.

2.5 Harvest Time Estimation Subsystem

In an embodiment, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130, among other components, includes a harvest time estimation subsystem 170. The harvest time estimation subsystem 170 is configured to provide a harvest time recommendation for harvesting planted crop using agricultural data values from one or more sources. The harvest time estimation subsystem 170 uses field data 106 and external data 110 to create digital models of grain moisture dry down rates for specific hybrid seeds of corn.

In an embodiment, the harvest time estimation subsystem 170 contains specially configured logic including, but not limited to, equilibrium moisture content logic 172, grain moisture logic 173, grain dry down logic 174, harvest recommendation logic 175, and harvest time application logic 171. Each of the foregoing elements is further described in structure and function in other sections herein. “Logic,” as used in 1, refers in at least one embodiment to regions of main memory in the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 into which programmed, executable instructions have been loaded, and which instructions are configured when executed to cause the computer to perform the functions that are described herein for that logical element. For example, equilibrium moisture content logic 172 indicates a region of main memory into which the computer has loaded instructions, which when executed cause performing the interface functions that are further described herein. These elements of FIG. 1 also indirectly indicate how a typical programmer or software engineer would organize the source code of programs that implement the functions that are described; the code may be organized into logical modules, methods, subroutines, branches, or other units using an architecture corresponding to FIG. 1.

In an embodiment, the equilibrium moisture content logic 172 is generally configured or programmed to construct equilibrium moisture content (EMC) time series based upon hybrid seed properties and daily weather data for a specific geo-location. An EMC time series is a collection of daily EMC values, where an EMC value represents the moisture content that a specific grain will eventually reach if the EMC value is held constant. EMC value is a function of temperature and relative humidity of ambient air. The grain moisture logic 173 is generally configured or programmed to calculate the grain moisture content of a specific hybrid seed at the start of the black layer (at kernel maturity R6) based upon observed and estimated hybrid seed property data of multiple hybrid seed varieties. The grain dry down logic 174 is generally configured or programmed to construct a grain dry down time series based upon the EMC time series, the grain moisture content of a specific hybrid seed at R6, relative maturity of a specific hybrid seed, and calculated drying coefficients based upon historical data of hybrid seed varieties. The harvest recommendation logic 175 is generally configured or programmed to evaluate the grain dry down time series and calculate the optimal harvest date.

Each of harvest time application logic 171, EMC logic 172, grain moisture logic 173, grain dry down logic 174, and harvest recommendation logic 175 may be implemented using one or more computer programs or other software elements that are loaded into and executed using one or more general-purpose computers, logic implemented in field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) or application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). While FIG. 1 depicts harvest time application logic 171, grain dry down logic 174, EMC logic 172, grain moisture logic 173, and harvest recommendation logic 175 in one computing system, in various embodiments, logics 171, 172, 173, 174, and 175 may operate on multiple computing systems.

In an embodiment, the implementation of the functions described herein for harvest time application logic 171, EMC logic 172, grain moisture logic 173, grain dry down logic 174, and harvest recommendation logic 175 using one or more computer programs or other software elements that are loaded into and executed using one or more general-purpose computers will cause the general-purpose computers to be configured as a particular machine or as a computer that is specially adapted to perform the functions described herein. Each of the items of logic in FIG. 1, and in all other drawing figures herein, may represent a region or set of one or more pages of main memory storing programmed instructions which when executed cause performing the process steps or algorithm steps that are disclosed herein. Thus the logic elements do not represent mere abstractions but represent real pages of memory that have been loaded with executable instructions. Further, each of the flow diagrams that are described further herein may serve as algorithms, plans or directions that may be used to program a computer or logic to implement the functions that are described. In other words, all the prose text herein, and all the drawing figures, together are intended to provide disclosure of algorithms, plans or directions that are sufficient to permit a skilled person to program a computer to perform the functions that are described herein, in combination with the skill and knowledge of such a person given the level of skill that is appropriate for inventions and disclosures of this type.

In an embodiment, external data server computer 108 stores external data 110, including historical grain moisture for a variety of hybrid seeds and weather data representing daily temperatures and humidity on one or more fields. Historical grain moisture may include, but is not limited to, estimated R6 dates for hybrid seed varieties, relative maturity for hybrid seed varieties, observed grain moisture at harvest, and geo-location specific data for each hybrid seed variety recorded. The weather data may include past and present daily temperatures including highs, lows, and dew point temperatures. In an embodiment, external data server 108 comprises a plurality of servers hosted by different entities. For example, a first server may contain hybrid seed property data while a second server may include weather data.

2.6 Implementation Example—Hardware Overview

According to one embodiment, the techniques described herein are implemented by one or more special-purpose computing devices. The special-purpose computing devices may be hard-wired to perform the techniques, or may include digital electronic devices such as one or more application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) or field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) that are persistently programmed to perform the techniques, or may include one or more general purpose hardware processors programmed to perform the techniques pursuant to program instructions in firmware, memory, other storage, or a combination. Such special-purpose computing devices may also combine custom hard-wired logic, ASICs, or FPGAs with custom programming to accomplish the techniques. The special-purpose computing devices may be desktop computer systems, portable computer systems, handheld devices, networking devices or any other device that incorporates hard-wired and/or program logic to implement the techniques.

For example, FIG. 4 is a block diagram that illustrates a computer system 400 upon which an embodiment of the invention may be implemented. Computer system 400 includes a bus 402 or other communication mechanism for communicating information, and a hardware processor 404 coupled with bus 402 for processing information. Hardware processor 404 may be, for example, a general purpose microprocessor.

Computer system 400 also includes a main memory 406, such as a random access memory (RAM) or other dynamic storage device, coupled to bus 402 for storing information and instructions to be executed by processor 404. Main memory 406 also may be used for storing temporary variables or other intermediate information during execution of instructions to be executed by processor 404. Such instructions, when stored in non-transitory storage media accessible to processor 404, render computer system 400 into a special-purpose machine that is customized to perform the operations specified in the instructions.

Computer system 400 further includes a read only memory (ROM) 408 or other static storage device coupled to bus 402 for storing static information and instructions for processor 404. A storage device 410, such as a magnetic disk, optical disk, or solid-state drive is provided and coupled to bus 402 for storing information and instructions.

Computer system 400 may be coupled via bus 402 to a display 412, such as a cathode ray tube (CRT), for displaying information to a computer user. An input device 414, including alphanumeric and other keys, is coupled to bus 402 for communicating information and command selections to processor 404. Another type of user input device is cursor control 416, such as a mouse, a trackball, or cursor direction keys for communicating direction information and command selections to processor 404 and for controlling cursor movement on display 412. This input device typically has two degrees of freedom in two axes, a first axis (e.g., x) and a second axis (e.g., y), that allows the device to specify positions in a plane.

Computer system 400 may implement the techniques described herein using customized hard-wired logic, one or more ASICs or FPGAs, firmware and/or program logic which in combination with the computer system causes or programs computer system 400 to be a special-purpose machine. According to one embodiment, the techniques herein are performed by computer system 400 in response to processor 404 executing one or more sequences of one or more instructions contained in main memory 406. Such instructions may be read into main memory 406 from another storage medium, such as storage device 410. Execution of the sequences of instructions contained in main memory 406 causes processor 404 to perform the process steps described herein. In alternative embodiments, hard-wired circuitry may be used in place of or in combination with software instructions.

The term “storage media” as used herein refers to any non-transitory media that store data and/or instructions that cause a machine to operate in a specific fashion. Such storage media may comprise non-volatile media and/or volatile media. Non-volatile media includes, for example, optical disks, magnetic disks, or solid-state drives, such as storage device 410. Volatile media includes dynamic memory, such as main memory 406. Common forms of storage media include, for example, a floppy disk, a flexible disk, hard disk, solid-state drive, magnetic tape, or any other magnetic data storage medium, a CD-ROM, any other optical data storage medium, any physical medium with patterns of holes, a RAM, a PROM, and EPROM, a FLASH-EPROM, NVRAM, any other memory chip or cartridge.

Storage media is distinct from but may be used in conjunction with transmission media. Transmission media participates in transferring information between storage media. For example, transmission media includes coaxial cables, copper wire and fiber optics, including the wires that comprise bus 402. Transmission media can also take the form of acoustic or light waves, such as those generated during radio-wave and infra-red data communications.

Various forms of media may be involved in carrying one or more sequences of one or more instructions to processor 404 for execution. For example, the instructions may initially be carried on a magnetic disk or solid-state drive of a remote computer. The remote computer can load the instructions into its dynamic memory and send the instructions over a telephone line using a modem. A modem local to computer system 400 can receive the data on the telephone line and use an infra-red transmitter to convert the data to an infra-red signal. An infra-red detector can receive the data carried in the infra-red signal and appropriate circuitry can place the data on bus 402. Bus 402 carries the data to main memory 406, from which processor 404 retrieves and executes the instructions. The instructions received by main memory 406 may optionally be stored on storage device 410 either before or after execution by processor 404.

Computer system 400 also includes a communication interface 418 coupled to bus 402. Communication interface 418 provides a two-way data communication coupling to a network link 420 that is connected to a local network 422. For example, communication interface 418 may be an integrated services digital network (ISDN) card, cable modem, satellite modem, or a modem to provide a data communication connection to a corresponding type of telephone line. As another example, communication interface 418 may be a local area network (LAN) card to provide a data communication connection to a compatible LAN. Wireless links may also be implemented. In any such implementation, communication interface 418 sends and receives electrical, electromagnetic or optical signals that carry digital data streams representing various types of information.

Network link 420 typically provides data communication through one or more networks to other data devices. For example, network link 420 may provide a connection through local network 422 to a host computer 424 or to data equipment operated by an Internet Service Provider (ISP) 426. ISP 426 in turn provides data communication services through the world wide packet data communication network now commonly referred to as the “Internet” 428. Local network 422 and Internet 428 both use electrical, electromagnetic or optical signals that carry digital data streams. The signals through the various networks and the signals on network link 420 and through communication interface 418, which carry the digital data to and from computer system 400, are example forms of transmission media.

Computer system 400 can send messages and receive data, including program code, through the network(s), network link 420 and communication interface 418. In the Internet example, a server 430 might transmit a requested code for an application program through Internet 428, ISP 426, local network 422 and communication interface 418.

The received code may be executed by processor 404 as it is received, and/or stored in storage device 410, or other non-volatile storage for later execution.

3.0 Functional Overview

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram that depicts a process for determining optimal harvest time for a specific hybrid seed of corn planted at a specific geo-location based upon target grain moisture content at harvest. FIG. 5 may be implemented, in one embodiment, by programming the elements of the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 to perform the functions that are described in this section, which may represent disclosure of an algorithm for computer implementation of the functions that are described. For purposes of illustrating a clear example, FIG. 5 is described in connection with certain elements of FIG. 1. However, other embodiments of FIG. 5 may be practiced in many other contexts and references herein to units of FIG. 1 are merely examples that are not intended to limit the broader scope of FIG. 5.

3.1 Receiving Data

At block 502, crop seed data and weather data related to a field are received by the agricultural intelligence computer system 130. For example, the agricultural intelligence computer system 130 may receive field data 106 from the field manager computing device 104 and external data 110 from the external data server 108. Field data 106 may include, but is not limited to, crop seed data that identifies which specific hybrid has been planted by the user 102 and geo-location information related to the user's 102 field.

External data 110 received from the external data server 108 may include historical property information for a variety of hybrid seeds and historical geo-location specific weather data. In an embodiment, historical geo-location specific weather data may be used in determining coefficients used in calculating R6 and grain moisture dry down. In an embodiment, external data 110 may be available from one or more different external servers 108. For example, external data 110 related to historical seed property information for a variety of hybrid seeds may be available from the Farmer's Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST) data repository. FIRST is a collaborative seed test program that utilizes farmers and seed producers to track planting and harvest of a variety of hybrid seed products across multiple fields in several corn producing states in the United States. Hybrid seed measurements include corn yield and grain moisture at time of harvest for each field and hybrid seed type. The historical measurements are collected and stored in a publicly accessible database. In another embodiment, geo-location specific weather information may be available from one or more different external servers 108 that specifically store historical weather information.

In an embodiment, the specific field data 106 received may be used to determine which external data 110 is to be received by the agricultural intelligence computer system 130. FIG. 6 depicts an embodiment of a detailed flow diagram for receiving field data 106 and external data 110. At block 602, the communication layer 132 receives field data 106 from the field manager computing device 104. The communication layer 132 then relays the field data 106, which includes hybrid seed type and geo-location information, to the harvest time application logic 171.

At block 604, the harvest time application logic 171 determines whether external data 110 is needed from the external data server 108. For example, specific external data 110 related to the weather conditions and properties of the specific hybrid seed type are required to accurately predict optimal harvest times. In embodiment, the harvest time application logic 171 may first query the model and field data repository 160, to determine if and to what extent external data 110 is required. For example, if the model and field data repository 160 has previously stored weather and seed property data for the specific hybrid seed, then the harvest time application logic 171 may not need any new external data 110. In another example, the harvest time application logic 171 may query the model and field data repository 160 and determine that only external data 110 related to the previous week's weather conditions is required from the external data server 108.

At block 606, if the harvest time application logic 171 has determined external data 110 is required, then the harvest time application logic 171 creates a query for an external data server 108.

At block 608, the harvest time application logic 171 requests, using the created query, external data 110 from the external data server 108. At block 610, the harvest time application logic 171 stores the received field data 106 and external data 110 in the model and field data repository 160.

If at block 604, the harvest time application logic 171 determines a query for external data 110 is not required, then the received field data 106 is stored in the model and field data repository 160 (block 610).

3.2 Equilibrium Moisture Content Logic

At block 504 in FIG. 5, the EMC logic 172 creates an EMC time series using external data 110 stored in the model and field data repository 160. The EMC logic 172 calculates dry-basis EMC values for each day based on available daily weather data points from the stored external data 110. A dry-basis EMC value represents a percentage of the moisture content of a given sample divided by the dry mass of the given sample.

In an embodiment, the EMC logic 172 uses the external data 110 including: temperature values related to daily maximum, minimum, average, and at dew point; a daily derived relative humidity fraction; and empirically derived grain dependent constants. The EMC logic 172 determines the EMC value at a specific time using the Chung-Pfost equation:

M _(eq)(t)=E−F*ln [−(T _(avg)(t)+C)*ln RH(t)]

where M_(eq) (t) equals the average daily dry-basis EMC fraction at time t; T_(avg) (t) equals the average daily temperature at time t, in Celsius; RH(t) equals the average daily relative humidity fraction at time t; E, F, and C are Chung-Pfost equation constants specific to corn.

In an embodiment, relative humidity, RH(t), may be calculated using the following equation:

${R{H(t)}} = \frac{P_{v}\left( {T_{dew}(t)} \right)}{{0.5}\left( {{P_{v}\left( {T_{\max}(t)} \right)} + {P_{v}\left( {T_{\min}(t)} \right)}} \right.}$

where T_(dew)(t), T_(max)(t), T_(min)(t) equal the dew point, maximum, and minimum temperatures at time t, in Celsius.

P_(v)(T) equals the saturated vapor pressure, in kPa, for a given temperature T, where P_(v)(T) is calculated for a given temperature using the following equation:

−−P _(v)(T)=0.6108^((17.27T/(T+237.3)))

where 0.6108 equals a reference saturation vapor pressure, in kPa, at 0 degrees Celsius, and 17.27 and 237.3 are constants used to determine partial pressure of water vapor.

In other embodiments, relative humidity may be calculated using either Modified-Oswin equation, Strohman-Yoerger equation, Modified-Halsey equation, Chen-Clayton equation, or Modified Henderson equation.

In an embodiment, the EMC logic 172 calculates the dry-basis EMC value for each day in the time series starting at an estimated R6 date and ending at the last date for which weather data is provided. In an embodiment, the estimated R6 date for the specific to the hybrid seed is included in the external data 110 stored in the model and field data repository 160. In an embodiment, the EMC logic 172 sends the EMC time series to the harvest time application logic 171 for storage in the model and field data repository 160.

3.3 Grain Moisture Logic

At block 506, the grain moisture logic 173 calculates the grain moisture content at R6 based upon the relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed, a starting moisture coefficient, an adjustment coefficient, and the average relative maturity of corn seeds. The purpose calculating a specific hybrid seed moisture content at R6 is that it provides a grain moisture starting point for determining the grain moisture dry down rate and optimal harvest time.

In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 determines the start date of R6 based upon external data 110, where the external data 110 includes an estimated R6 date for the specific hybrid seed. The estimated R6 date may be based upon a phenology database of observed lifecycles of hybrid corn varieties. In another embodiment, R6 start date may be retrieved from an internal phenology database maintained in the model and field data repository 160.

In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 is programmed to use the following parameters to determine specific hybrid seed grain moisture at R6:

-   -   1) A estimated distribution of grain moisture content for corn         seed varieties.     -   2) A estimated distribution of an R6 adjustment factor based         upon observed relative maturity adjustments from corn seed         varieties.     -   3) Estimated relative maturity for the specific hybrid in         question.     -   4) An average relative maturity for the set of corn seed         varieties observed.

FIG. 7 depicts an embodiment by which the grain moisture logic 173 estimates grain moisture content for the specific hybrid seed at R6, using the parameters above. At block 702, the grain moisture logic 173 creates a posterior distribution of grain moisture content using the external data 110 stored in the model and field data repository 160. For example, the external data 110 may include measured and/or calculated moisture data at R6 for each of the hybrid seed varieties. In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 may use Gibbs sampling method for sampling observations into a probability distribution that becomes the posterior distribution of grain moisture at R6. The Gibbs sampling method is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for obtaining a sequence of random samples from a probability distribution when direct sampling is otherwise difficult. Other embodiments may implement different Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo or the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. In yet other embodiments simulations of the grain dry down process may be performed with a range of possible parametric values to take into account for their uncertainties. In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 uses the mean value of the posterior distribution of grain moisture at R6 as the starting grain moisture at R6. In an alternative embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 may use the median value of the posterior distribution of grain moisture at R6 as the starting grain moisture at R6. In yet another embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 uses the entire posterior distribution dataset of grain moisture at R6 to create a set of R6 grain moisture values to be evaluated.

At block 704, the grain moisture logic 173 creates a posterior distribution of an R6 adjustment factor, where the R6 adjustment factor is a calculated value for how much the relative maturity of each hybrid seed variety needs to be adjusted based upon the observed grain moisture at harvest. For example, the grain moisture logic 173 may calculate the observed relative maturity of each hybrid seed sample and then determine how much the estimated relative maturity would need to be adjusted in order to align with the observed value. In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 may use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling the observed adjustment factor into a posterior distribution for a relative maturity adjustment coefficient. In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 uses the median value of the posterior distribution for the relative maturity adjustment coefficient as the relative maturity adjustment coefficient. In an alternative embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 may use the mean value of the posterior distribution for the relative maturity adjustment coefficient as the relative maturity adjustment coefficient.

At block 706, the grain moisture logic 173 sets a baseline relative maturity as the average relative maturity for all observed corn seed varieties. The baseline relative maturity value is used for determining how much to adjust the moisture of a given hybrid seed based upon the difference of the given hybrid seed's relative maturity to the baseline relative maturity. For example, the baseline relative maturity may be set as the average relative maturity of all hybrid seed varieties.

At block 708, the grain moisture logic 173 calculates the hybrid seed grain moisture at R6 as a function of the hybrid seed's relative maturity versus the baseline relative maturity of all observed hybrid seed varieties. In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 uses the following equation to determine hybrid seed grain moisture at R6:

M(t=R6)=a+b*(rm_(hybrid)−rm_(baseline))

where M(t=R6) equals the hybrid seed wet-basis moisture content at R6; a equals the posterior median of grain moisture content at R6 for all corn seed varieties; b equals the posterior median of the relative maturity adjustment coefficient for all corn seed varieties; rm_(hybrid) equals the relative maturity of the hybrid seed; rm_(baseline) equals the average relative maturity of all corn seed varieties.

In an embodiment, the grain moisture logic 173 sends the calculated the grain moisture content at R6 of the hybrid seed to the harvest time application logic 171 to be stored in the model and field data repository 160.

3.4 Grain Dry Down Logic

At block 508, the grain dry down logic 174 creates a grain dry down time series for the specific hybrid seed. The grain dry down time series is a set of dry down rates and hybrid seed moisture content corresponding to a specific day during the dry down process. Grain dry down refers to the exchange of moisture from the hybrid seed kernel to the outside air.

In an embodiment, external data 110 used to calculate daily grain dry down includes: the kernel moisture value of the specific hybrid seed at R6 as calculated by the grain moisture logic 173 as M(t=R6), the moisture content of the ambient air at specific dates as provided by the EMC time series, and historical dry down data for hybrid seed varieties. In an embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 calculates the rate of daily grain dry down as the difference between the kernel moisture and the moisture of ambient air at that specific date, multiplied by a drying coefficient.

In an embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 calculates the grain dry down rate starting from the R6 date of the specific hybrid seed. In an embodiment, the daily dry down rate is calculated using the following equation:

$\frac{dM}{dt} = {{- \frac{k}{\left( {r{m_{hybrid}/1}00} \right)^{p}}}*\left( {{M(t)} - {EM{C(t)}}} \right)}$

where

$\frac{dM}{dt}$

equals the dry down rate at time t, where t represents a specific day and

$\frac{k}{\left( {{rm}_{hybrid}/100} \right)^{p}}$

equals the drying coefficient; M(t) equals the grain moisture content of the specific hybrid seed at time t; EMC(t) equals the equilibrium moisture content of the ambient air at time t.

In an embodiment, the drying coefficient is calculated as a function of the relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed and derived parameters from historical moisture data collected from corn seed varieties. In an embodiment, parameters k and p describe how drying coefficients should be adjusted according to relative maturity. In another embodiment, multiple parameters, along with parameters k and p, may be used to describe the relationship between dry down and relative maturity. These parameters may describe posterior distributions created from historical moisture data collected from corn seed varieties, where parameters k and p are the respective posterior medians from the posterior distributions. For example, if the posterior medians k=0.030, p=3.6, and the relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed is 95, then the drying coefficient for hybrid seed₉₅ would equal:

${\frac{{0.0}30}{\left( {9{5/1}00} \right)^{36}} \approx {{0.0}36}}\mspace{14mu} {per}\mspace{14mu} {day}$

However using the same posterior median parameters, if the hybrid seed relative maturity is 115, then the drying coefficient for hybrid seed₁₁₅ would equal:

${\frac{{0.0}30}{\left( {11{5/1}00} \right)^{3.6}} \approx {{0.0}18}}\mspace{14mu} {per}\mspace{14mu} {day}$

Therefore the drying coefficient is dependent on the relative maturity because hybrid seeds with shorter relative maturity tend to dry at a high drying coefficient than hybrid seeds with longer relative maturity.

FIG. 8 depicts an example of calculating the daily dry down rate starting at R6. At block 802, the grain dry down logic 174 identifies the parameters for determining the daily dry down rate starting at R6. For example, when t=R6 the grain dry down logic 174 uses the calculated hybrid seed moisture content from the grain moisture logic 173 as M(t=R6) and looks up from the EMC time series the value for EMC(t=R6). In an embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 calculates the drying coefficient parameter using the relative maturity for the specific hybrid seed and posterior medians for coefficients k and p. In another embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 may retrieve a previously stored drying coefficient provided that the relative maturity of the hybrid seed and posterior medians of coefficients k and p have not changed.

At block 804, the grain dry down logic 174 calculates the daily dry down rate at time t using the daily dry down rate equation described above. For example, if the parameters are:

M(t = R 6) = 28% EMC(t = R 6) = 12% k = 0.030 p = 3.6 rm = 95 ${{drying}\mspace{14mu} {coefficient}} = {\frac{k}{\left( {{rm}_{hybrid}/100} \right)^{p}} \approx \frac{{0.0}30}{\left( {9{5/1}00} \right)^{36}} \approx 0.036}$

Then the dry down rate is calculated as follows:

$\frac{dM}{dt} = {{{- \frac{k}{\left( {{rm}_{hybrid}/100} \right)^{p}}}*\left( {{M(t)} - {EM{C(t)}}} \right)} = {{{- {0.0}}36*\left( {{28} - {12}} \right)} \approx {{- 0.576}\mspace{11mu} \%}}}$

where

$\frac{dM}{dt}$

equals a drying rate of 0.576% of wet-basis moisture per day.

At block 806, the grain dry down logic 174 adds the calculated dry down rate at time t (block 804) and the hybrid seed moisture content M(t) to the grain dry down time series. The grain dry down logic 174 then determines whether there are more data points available to calculated additional daily dry down rates. In an embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 calculates daily dry down rates for each data point within the EMC time series because the EMC time series represents each measured day up until the latest measured day. By calculating the latest data, the grain dry down time series will reflect the most accurate information for calculating current moisture levels.

If at block 806, the grain dry down logic 174 determines that there are more data points then the grain dry down logic 174 proceeds to block 802, where time t equals “t+1”. In an embodiment, at block 802 the grain dry down logic calculates the hybrid seed moisture content M(t+1) by taking M(t) and subtracting the calculated dry down rate,

$\frac{dM}{dt},$

at time t. For example, the hybrid seed moisture content at t=R6+1 is:

${M\left( {{R6} + 1} \right)} = {{{M\left( {R6} \right)} + {\frac{dM}{dt}\left( {t = {R6}} \right)}} = {{{28\%} + \left( {{- 0.576}\%} \right)} \approx {2{7.4}24\%}}}$

In an embodiment, the grain dry down logic 174 looks up from the EMC time series the value for EMC(t=R6+1) and uses the same drying coefficient previously used. Then the grain dry down logic 174 proceeds to block 804 to calculate the dry down rate at R6+1.

In an embodiment, if at block 806 the grain dry down logic 174 determines there are no more data points available to calculate the dry down rate, then the grain dry down logic 174 returns the grain dry down time series to the harvest time application logic 171 to be stored in the model and field data repository 160.

3.5 Harvest Recommendation Logic

At block 510, the harvest recommendation logic 175 determines optimal harvest time based upon the grain dry down time series and a desired moisture level. In an embodiment, the harvest time application logic 171 sends the grain dry down time series and an optimal grain moisture value to the harvest recommendation logic 175. An optimal grain moisture value is a configurable wet-basis moisture value for grain based upon the desired moisture content of the user 102. In an embodiment, the user 102 may specify the optimal grain moisture value as part of the received field data 106 from the field manager computing device 104. In another embodiment, the optimal moisture content may be preconfigured based upon desired grain moisture values of buyers of corn grain.

In an embodiment, the harvest recommendation logic 175 graphs the hybrid seed moisture content values in the grain dry down time series and extrapolates future moisture content values based upon a trend line. In an embodiment, extrapolation of future moisture content may be based upon forecasted weather data that is used to calculate EMC values and the changing rate of grain dry down, where the rate of grain dry down steadily decreases as the moisture content value nears the EMC value. In another embodiment, the harvest recommendation logic 175 may extrapolate moisture content values based upon historical EMC data values for the time of year and geo-location and EMC values based on forecasted weather data.

In an embodiment, the harvest recommendation logic 175 returns a recommendation data model to the harvest time application logic 171. The recommendation data model includes, but is not limited to, an extrapolated graph of the moisture content values of the hybrid seed, including predicted values, and a recommended harvest date that is based upon the desired moisture content value of the hybrid seed. By providing both the recommendation date and the moisture content dry down graph, the user 102 may better understand the grain dry down trend of his crop.

FIG. 9 depicts a sample recommendation data model, where graph 902 depicts a the recommendation data model for field X. Line 904 is the extrapolated trend line based upon calculated moisture content values from the grain dry down time series. Point 906 is the predicted date (day R6+50) where the moisture content of the hybrid seed reaches 15% wet-basis moisture.

In an embodiment, the harvest time application logic 171 relays the recommendation data model to the presentation layer 134. The presentation layer 134 packages and sends the recommendation data model in a format that is displayable on the field manager computing device 104. In other embodiments, the harvest time application logic 171 stores the recommendation data model in memory. Stored recommendation data models may later be used to improve methods used by the harvest recommendation logic 175 and may be used for cross-validating future recommendation data models.

In the foregoing specification, embodiments of the invention have been described with reference to numerous specific details that may vary from implementation to implementation. The specification and drawings are, accordingly, to be regarded in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense. The sole and exclusive indicator of the scope of the invention, and what is intended by the applicants to be the scope of the invention, is the literal and equivalent scope of the set of claims that issue from this application, in the specific form in which such claims issue, including any subsequent correction. 

1. A method comprising: receiving over a digital data communication network at an agricultural intelligence computer system comprising one or more processors and digital memory, electronic digital data comprising a plurality of values representing crop seed data and weather data for one or more agricultural fields; using digitally programmed logic in an equilibrium moisture content logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, creating and storing in computer memory an equilibrium moisture content time series for a specific geo-location based, at least in part, on the plurality of values crop seed data and weather data, where the equilibrium moisture content time series represents average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction over a series of time data points; using digitally programmed logic in a grain moisture logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, calculating and storing in computer memory an R6 moisture content for a specific hybrid seed based, at least in part, on the plurality of values representing crop seed data; using digitally programmed logic in a grain dry down logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, creating and storing in computer memory a grain dry down time series for the specific hybrid seed at the specific geo-location based, at least in part, on the equilibrium moisture content time series, the R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed, and a calculated drying coefficient for the specific hybrid seed, where the grain dry down time series represents moisture levels of the specific hybrid seed at given points in time; and using digitally programmed logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, displaying a harvest time recommendation for harvesting crop grown on one or more agricultural fields based, at least in part, on the electronic digital data.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the crop seed data includes digital data representing estimated relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed and R6 data for the specific hybrid seed that is based upon historical phenology modeling data.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein the weather data comprises digital data representing values for historical average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature, historical daily dewpoint temperatures, historical average relative humidity, and historical saturated vapor pressure for a given temperature for the one or more fields.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein creation of the equilibrium moisture content time series by the equilibrium moisture content logic comprises: deriving an average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction value at a specific time using computer execution of a digital representation of a Chung-Pfost equation; compiling the equilibrium moisture content time series using derived average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction values over a series of time data points.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein calculation of the R6 moisture content comprises: deriving a dry down start date coefficient based, at least in part, on R6 data for the specific hybrid seed; deriving a dry down adjustment factor based, at least in part, on relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed; calculating an R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed using the dry down start date coefficient, the dry down adjustment factor, the relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed, and a baseline maturity duration timeframe.
 6. The method of claim 5, wherein the dry down start date coefficient is calculated as a median of a posterior distribution of R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed, where the posterior distribution of R6 dates is a compilation of historical R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed measured across one or more fields.
 7. The method of claim 5, wherein the dry down adjustment factor is calculated as a median of a posterior distribution of variation between observed maturity dates and estimated R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed measured across one or more fields.
 8. The method of claim 5, wherein the baseline maturity duration timeframe is configured based upon a type of the hybrid seed.
 9. The method of claim 1, wherein creation of the grain dry down time series comprises: calculating a rate of change in moisture value for the specific hybrid seed at a specific time, where the rate of change in moisture equals a difference between the moisture content within the specific hybrid seed and the equilibrium moisture content at a specific time, multiplied by a dry down coefficient; determining the moisture content within the specific hybrid seed based on the R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed; deriving the equilibrium moisture content from the equilibrium moisture content time series at the specific time calculated; determining the dry down coefficient based upon a function of relative maturity expressed in days; compiling the calculated rate of change in moisture values to create the grain dry down time series.
 10. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the harvest recommendation is based upon selecting a date from the grain dry down time series where the grain moisture equals a target moisture value.
 11. One or more non-transitory storage media storing instructions which, when executed by one or more computing devices, cause performance of a method comprising the steps of: receiving over a digital data communication network at an agricultural intelligence computer system comprising one or more processors and digital memory, electronic digital data comprising a plurality of values representing crop seed data and weather data for one or more agricultural fields; using digitally programmed logic in an equilibrium moisture content logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, creating and storing in computer memory an equilibrium moisture content time series for a specific geo-location based, at least in part, on the plurality of values crop seed data and weather data, where the equilibrium moisture content time series represents average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction over a series of time data points; using digitally programmed logic in a grain moisture logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, calculating and storing in computer memory an R6 moisture content for a specific hybrid seed based, at least in part, on the plurality of values representing crop seed data; using digitally programmed logic in a grain dry down logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, creating and storing in computer memory a grain dry down time series for the specific hybrid seed at the specific geo-location based, at least in part, on the equilibrium moisture content time series, the R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed, and a calculated drying coefficient for the specific hybrid seed, where the grain dry down time series represents moisture levels of the specific hybrid seed at given points in time; using digitally programmed logic in a harvest recommendation logic of the agricultural intelligence computer system, determining and displaying a harvest time recommendation for harvesting crop grown from the specific hybrid seed planted based, at least in part, on the grain dry down time series.
 12. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein the crop seed data includes digital data representing estimated relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed and R6 data for the specific hybrid seed that is based upon historical phenology modeling data.
 13. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein the weather data comprises digital data representing values for historical average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature, historical daily dewpoint temperatures, historical average relative humidity, and historical saturated vapor pressure for a given temperature for the one or more fields.
 14. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein creation of the equilibrium moisture content time series by the equilibrium moisture content logic comprises: deriving an average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction value at a specific time using computer execution of a digital representation of a Chung-Pfost equation; compiling the equilibrium moisture content time series using derived average daily dry-basis equilibrium moisture content fraction values over a series of time data points.
 15. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein calculation of the R6 moisture content comprises: deriving a dry down start date coefficient based, at least in part, on R6 data for the specific hybrid seed; deriving a dry down adjustment factor based, at least in part, on relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed; calculating an R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed using the dry down start date coefficient, the dry down adjustment factor, the relative maturity of the specific hybrid seed, and a baseline maturity duration timeframe.
 16. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 15, wherein the dry down start date coefficient is calculated as a median of a posterior distribution of R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed, where the posterior distribution of R6 dates is a compilation of historical R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed measured across one or more fields.
 17. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 15, wherein the dry down adjustment factor is calculated as a median of a posterior distribution of variation between observed maturity dates and estimated R6 dates for the specific hybrid seed measured across one or more fields.
 18. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 15, wherein the baseline maturity duration timeframe is configured based upon a type of the hybrid seed.
 19. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein creation of the grain dry down time series comprises: calculating a rate of change in moisture value for the specific hybrid seed at a specific time, where the rate of change in moisture equals a difference between the moisture content within the specific hybrid seed and the equilibrium moisture content at a specific time, multiplied by a dry down coefficient; determining the moisture content within the specific hybrid seed based on the R6 moisture content for the specific hybrid seed; deriving the equilibrium moisture content from the equilibrium moisture content time series at the specific time calculated; determining the dry down coefficient based upon a function of relative maturity expressed in days; compiling the calculated rate of change in moisture values to create the grain dry down time series.
 20. The one or more non-transitory storage media of claim 11, wherein determining the harvest recommendation is based upon selecting a date from the grain dry down time series where the grain moisture equals a target moisture value. 